10 Scoreless

OT - Top Wrestling Entrance Themes (1995-Present)

2010-06-14T20:16:00.004-05:00

Closer Situation

2010-06-07T13:23:00.001-05:00

PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT: The thoughts and feelings expressed in this post are not necessarily endorsed by the author. The author is content with Jon Rauch as a closer, but has thought about alternatives.

Some Twins fans seem to be convinced that this team simply will not succeed in October without a more reliable ninth inning option than Jon Rauch. While Rauch leads the AL in saves with 15, he’s shown a propensity for creating coronaries for Twins fans by channeling his inner Eddie Guardado. Rauch still has a solid 2.74 ERA, but his WHIP of 1.26 and K/9 rate of 6.7 would seem to suggest that the ERA is on shaky ground. It is the opinion of this writer that the Twins can most definitely reach the promised land with a closer of Rauch’s caliber in their stable. For instance, the Twins won the 1987 with a more accomplished but perhaps more embattled closer named Jeff Reardon. A quick glance at Reardon’s 1987 campaign reveals an ugly 4.48 ERA, and a less than spectacular 1.22 WHIP. Reardon’s K/BB ratio was also a good, but not great 2.96, which pales in comparison to Rauch, who towers over Reardon with a 5.67 ratio, thanks in large part to only three walks in 23 innings pitched.

Reardon, like Rauch, was also a pitcher who didn’t strike out a lot of batters. In 1987, however, Reardon posted a solid 9.3 K/9 rate, well above his rate in any other season of his career and his 7.0 career rate. Rauch’s career rate is a slightly better 7.2. Another thing that may be interesting to note is that even with a lockdown closer, teams simply aren’t just guaranteed success anyway. Joe Nathan, who has been arguably the best closer since coming to Minnesota (a recent FSNorth graphic showed he was number one in many important statistics for closers), fizzled under the bright lights of the new Yankee Stadium last season, as the Twins were sent packing in three straight games.

Furthermore, the Twins already have a relatively good group of relievers, with Ron Mahay certainly outperforming his 5.52 ERA (9.8 K/9, 4.00 K/BB) and Jesse Crain seemingly on the right track until his last appearance in Oakland. Those are the two arms that would be closest to fungible on the current staff, and they still need to make room for Pat Neshek to return at some point, Anthony Slama possibly at some point this year, or maybe someone like Kyle Waldrop (on the 40-man roster unlike Slama, and carrying a 1.33 ERA and 25-8 K/BB ratio in Rochester). Offseason free agent signee Clay Condrey is still in the mix, but with each setback it looks more and more like a forgettable season for the former Phillie.

So who would the Twins target if they were to look outside of the organization at closer? One would possibly think the Twins might have to think outside of the box. Common knowledge would seem to suggest that the teams that have legitimate closers are those who need them, or in other words, teams in contention. Now, there are a few teams that aren’t in contention that have closers the Twins could covet. Joakim Soria of the Kansas City Royals and Bobby Jenks of the White Sox come to mind, but the price may be high on both of them (in terms of talent dealt to Kansas City for the still-cheap Soria, or the salary paid out to Jenks, whose career is in some sort of a free fall with declining walk rates, WHIP, and ERA). So, to think outside of the box, 10Scoreless presents you with a few “outside the box” options for the Twins next closer:

Michael Wuertz – Oakland Athletics (6.30 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 8.1 K/9) Age 31, Salary $2.2 mill (signed thru 2011 with 2012 option)

Wuertz was born in Austin, Minn. However, this isn’t a hometown boy, feel good story. Wuertz is a legitimately dominant major league reliever. He’s struggling a bit in 2010, but he’s struck out nearly 10 hitters per nine innings, with a 3.44 ERA in 351 career innings. Furthermore, last season his slider was among the best pitches in the major leagues for swings and misses, as suggested by his incredible 11.7 K/9 rating. Wuertz closed out the victory for the Athletics over the Twins yesterday, but barring an Andrew Bailey injury, the save was simply just an additional opportunity for Wuertz rather than indicative of a future role with the club. Billy Beane no doubt knows that Wuertz is not nearly as bad as he’s pitched so far, but if the Twins can get Wuertz for anything near fair value, they should definitely inquire about him.

Matt Thornton – Chicago White Sox (2.10 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 12.9 K/9) Age 33, Salary $2.25 mill (signed through 2010 with 2011 option0

White Sox GM Kenny Williams would probably prefer to unload his current closer Bobby Jenks, who is only signed through the rest of this year at a hefty $7.5 million. However, it may not be unwise to gauge the market on a dominant setup man who is 33 years old when a team is likely going into a fire sale. Also unlike Jenks, Thornton appears to be better than ever, including his incredible .160/.192/.180 batting line that he’s limiting left-handed hitters to. Righties aren’t faring well against Thornton either, struggling to a .184/.279/.316 collective triple slash line.

Williams may be wise to maximize his return on anyone he can move at this time with a White Sox team clearly in flux with plenty of still marketable assets. This includes Jenks, Paul Konerko, and perhaps, Matt Thornton.

Neither of these two appear particularly likely to be dealt, but they are two arms that are sort of “outside the box” when it comes to an heir apparent at closer, since outright dealing for a closer is difficult and typically cost prohibitive.

Alex Burnett - Here To Stay?

2010-05-01T15:24:00.000-05:00

We're only a month into April, but one has to be impressed with how Alex Burnett has carried himself as the de facto "last man out of the pen." To date, he's appeared in six games with a 3.12 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and an impressive 11.4 K/9 rate.

With Clay Condrey set to come off the DL at some point, and Anthony Slama making his case for not just a 40-man roster spot but a 25-man spot in the Twins bullpen by tossing 15.1 innings of 1.17 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 11.2 K/9 ball at Rochester, the Twins may soon have some choices to make about their pen as we enter the second month of the season.

Burnett has effectively mixed a low 90's fastball (91.9 average velocity according to Fangraphs) with a mid 80s slider, a changeup, and a mid 70s curveball, all of which grade as above average.

So where does this leave the Twins when it comes to the bullpen going forward? It's not hard to suggest that one of Condrey or Slama ought to get the chance soon. One option would be doing something with Pat Neshek, who has lost nearly 3 miles-per-hour off his fastball, and is getting hit relatively hard (95% strike zone contact rate is almost 20 percent higher than his career rate). It hasn't blown up on him yet, but it's not prudent to wait for that either.

Another option would be to do something with Jesse Crain. Long a whipping boy for Twins fans, Crain has had a 2010 to forget thus far. While his ERA checks in a 6.55, however, his xFIP is a more reasonable 4.36 and his GB and LOB rates are way out of whack. He hasn't lost any velocity on his fastball, and his BABIP is a career high .333, which seems to suggest that he's just going through a rough patch, and that the Twins staff need not be alarmed yet.

So where does this leave Burnett? It's the opinion of this blogger that if the Twins opt to call up any other relief help, Burnett, who is actually under-performing his 2.85 xFIP, should not be demoted, but rather Neshek sent to AAA to work on velocity and building arm strength.

My Steroids Research Paper

2010-04-14T12:01:00.002-05:00

Last night I completed a steroids research paper, and I thought I'd share it here:

Ever since the inception of Major League Baseball in 1876, players have looked to gain the competitive edge. Early pitchers adopted the spitball, which was the chemical altering of a baseball with saliva, Vaseline, or mud to make the baseball behave in ways atypical of a delivered pitch. This was discontinued when Ray Chapman was struck in the head by an earth-colored baseball during a dimly lit game in 1920, and died hours later at a New York hospital. In the middle of the twentieth century, players began using amphetamines as pep pills, either to help them overcome the fatigue of the long season, or to gain a little extra energy after a night on the town. They were informally known as greenies. “How fabulous are greenies,” former big league pitcher Jim Bouton asked in his book “Ball Four.” “The answer is very. Greenies are pep pills –dextroamphetamine sulfate— and a lot of baseball players couldn’t function without them. (Bouton 81).

More recently, however, players have taken to injecting anabolic steroids as a way to not only hit the ball farther or throw the ball harder, but to be able to train more effectively when rehabilitating an injury. Jose Canseco claims to be the player who jump started the steroid era in the Major Leagues. As steroid use became more prevalent, Commissioner Bud Selig instituted testing in 2002 and eventually made steroids officially illegal in 2005. In 2006 Selig went so far as to launch a full-scale investigation on steroids, tabbing Congressman George Mitchell to conduct research into the prevalence of steroids, and in December of that 2007 Mitchell presented his findings with the Mitchell Report. This report of more than 400 pages implicated many players, and thus proved that steroid use had become rampant. With this paper, I intend to show the difference in media perceptions among two players who were found guilty of steroid use.

In his book “Juiced”, former Major League Baseball player Jose Canseco states that he did steroids for one reason only. “I had vowed to my mother,” Canseco said, “that I would become the best athlete on the planet, no matter what it took, and I was focused on making that happen. (11)” Whether or not these were his true motives, we may never know. Canseco stated that he began doing steroids during the 1984 offseason, and his stats reflect the immediate impact of the injections. “I was still a runt at that age, five foot eleven and one hundred and ninety pounds (11),” Canseco certified. Canseco had spent the 1984 season with the Modesto Muskies, which was the High-A affiliate of the Oakland Athletics. Canseco compiled a relatively solid .276/.388/.446 (batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage) batting line with 15 home runs and 10 stolen bases with Modesto that season, and earned himself a promotion to AA Huntsville in 1985, where he began an all out assault by hitting .318/.406/.739 before earning a midseason promotion to AAA Tacoma and finally having a cup of coffee with the parent club, the Oakland Athletics to end that year. Canseco wouldn’t see the minor leagues again (rehabilitation stints excepted) until he was a washed-up 37 year old has-been in 2002 with the Charlotte Knights in the Chicago White Sox system. Needless to say, it was a meteoric rise.

The meteoric rise in his play was equaled by the rise in his physique. Canseco’s official playing weight was 240 pounds, and he added five inches to his frame to fill out at nearly six and a half feet. While such a spike in size would raise red flags left and right in today’s game, back then nobody knew anything about steroids. “Back then, nobody even know if steroids were illegal at all (12),” Canseco alleged. Further proof, albeit potentially inconclusive, that steroids indeed altered Canseco’s career path include the fact that his twin brother Ozzie, who was listed as two inches shorter and 20 pounds lighter, didn’t hit a single home run in his major league career, which spanned less than 100 at bats over three seasons. In fact, one might argue Ozzie started them too late, as he finally showed a power spike with 48 home runs with Newark of the Independent League in 2000 (at the age of 35), before being arrested in 2003 for possession of Nandralone, an anabolic steroid.

As Canseco continued injecting steroids, he eventually started sharing them with teammates, most notably slugger Mark McGwire.

“I injected Mark in the bathrooms at the (Oakland) Coliseum more times than I can remember,” Canseco said. “Sometimes we did it before batting practice, sometimes afterward. It was really no big deal. We would just slip away, get our syringes and vials, and head into the bathroom area of the clubhouse to inject each other. (74)”

Canseco and McGwire would go on to become the “Bash Brothers” of the Oakland Athletics. However, their heroics were interrupted in late 1992 when Canseco was traded to the Texas Rangers. It was there, Canseco suggests, that he taught Rafael Palmeiro, Ivan Rodriguez, and Juan Gonzalez how to inject steroids. “Not long after I got there,” Canseco stated, “I sat down with Rafael Palmeiro, Juan Gonzalez, and Ivan Rodriguez, and educated them about steroids. Soon, I was injecting all three of them. (133)” Thus began the spread of steroids in baseball.
So as players became more familiar on how to inject steroids, they used them without the direct supervision or assistance of Canseco. From here I would like to chronicle the paths of two baseball players: Matt Lawton and Alex Rodriguez. Both were implicated in some way, and both received a much different response from the media, and the fans as a result.

First we must consider Matt Lawton. Lawton was drafted by the Minnesota Twins in the thirteenth round of the 1991 amateur draft, and signed later that summer. After spending parts of four seasons in the Twins’ minor league system, Lawton made his major league debut with the Twins in 1995. While he wasn’t in the major leagues to stay, Lawton made a big enough impression with his .317/.414/.467 batting line during his September call-up that season that he made the big league team out of spring training the following season. After struggling to a .205/.319/.244 line, Lawton was sent back to AAA on Apr. 27. Lawton stung Pacific Coast League pitching to a tune of .297/.379/.481 for 53 games, and then was called back up to the Twins essentially for good.

Once Lawton returned to the Twins in 1996, he hit a respectable .282/.349/.420 and from then on became a key cog in what was at the time a Twins team in transition. The Twins had come off of World Series wins in 1987 and 1991, but slashed payroll after unsuccessful 1992 and 1993 seasons. The 1996 team, which finished 78-84, was the last Twins team to finish with more than 70 wins until the 2001 team. Lawton became a star player on a team that was starving for one, as Paul Molitor retired and Chuck Knoblauch finagled a trade out of town to the perennial power New York Yankees. Lawton’s stock rose so high that he was named an American League All-Star in 2000, recovering fully from a fractured eye socket that occurred when Lawton lost a line drive in the Metrodome lights while patrolling right field to hit .305/.405/.460.

As Lawton’s play continued to shine, national media outlets began to take notice. Baseball Prospects, which lauds itself as the foremost authority by which baseball books are judged, had the following to say about Lawton after his shining 2000 campaign in their 2001 edition:

“Matt Lawton laid to rest any concerns about long-term problems from his shattered eye socket and earned his first All-Star appearance in 2000. Anywhere else in baseball, he would be a top-of-the-order star, but with the Twins, he’s a #3 hitter. Offseason discussions about trading him for power will work for the Twins only if they get a slugger at the start of his career. Any Twins’ offensive boost will come by making Ron Coomer a memory, not by trading Lawton. (Sheehan 383)”

This would seem to suggest that Lawton’s stock was at an all-time high as the 2000 season came to an end. The Twins seemed to agree, and attempted to sell high on Lawton while breaking up the “Soul Patrol” outfield of Lawton, Jacque Jones, and Torii Hunter in the middle of the 2001 season, sending him to the New York Mets for veteran starting pitcher Rick Reed in hopes that his veteran leadership would rub off on a young team that was in its first pennant race in a decade. The move didn’t work well for either side, as Lawton floundered in Queens and found himself in Cleveland to start the 2002 season, where he’d have mixed results but nowhere near the same success as he did with the Twins. Reed rewarded the Twins with a 25-25 record and 4.47 ERA during his parts of three seasons in Minneapolis, thus making the trade roughly a wash.

Lawton struggled to find positive results, or even a home team after leaving the Twins. Lawton was a recently released member of the New York Yankees, his fifth team in as many seasons when news broke of his positive steroids test in 2005. With 2005 being the first season that Commissioner Selig-mandated testing occurred, Lawton was the twelfth player suspended for a violation of the league’s drug policy, joining Rafael Palmeiro as the highest-profile players caught. “I made a terrible and foolish mistake that I will regret for the rest of my life,” Lawton said. “I take full responsibility for my actions and did not appeal my suspension. I apologize to the fans, the game, my family and all those people I let down. I am truly sorry and deeply regret my terrible lapse in judgment. (Associated Press)”

After Lawton’s positive test, the 2006 volume of Baseball Prospectus, the same book that lauded his play just five short years before, had the following to say about him:

“Lawton’s bat went cold when he was traded to the Cubs, and it never warmed up again. Worse still, by the time he got to the Yankees he looked as if he’d never played the outfield. Compared to Lawton, Melky Cabrera looked like Andruw Jones. Lawton quickly lost his job, and when he wasn’t included on the playoff roster, he jumped the club. Adding a pathetic quality to the proceedings, Lawton was busted for steroid use after the season. Lawton made a shamefaced apology, and has signed a one-year, incentive-laden deal with the Mariners. (Goldman 315)”

This seems to buck the notion that many casual fans have that players take steroids to gain muscle to hit home runs and make wads of cash. This, in addition to the list of players that were also suspended in the 2005 season (a less-than-inspiring list including Alex Sanchez, Jorge Piedra, Agustin Montero, Jamal Strong, Juan Rincon, Rafael Betancourt, Ryan Franklin, Michael Morse, Carlos Almanzar, and Felix Heredia), seems to suggest that while the Jose Canseco’s and Mark McGwire’s of the world injected to go from good to elite, there were many players who were injecting just to simply make it to the major leagues, or in the case of Lawton, have one last grasp of a career that was withering away. One must wonder how differently the excerpt from Baseball Prospectus may have read if Lawton was still a player in his prime when he was caught using steroids, but taking a look at another player’s situation may shed some light on that more.

On the opposite end of the spectrum is shortstop turned third baseman Alex Rodriguez of the New York Yankees. Rodriguez was drafted first overall in the 1993 amateur draft by the Seattle Mariners. Rodriguez’s meteoric rise to the major leagues landed him in Seattle in July, 1994 as a 18-year old. Rodriguez’s 1994 campaign, just like everyone else’s, was cut short by the strike. He would spend most of the 1995 season shuttling between the Mariners and their AAA affiliate, the nearby Tacoma Rainiers before the Mariners made him their full-time shortstop in 1996 with big time results. As a fresh-faced 20 year old, Rodriguez hit .358/.414/.631 with 36 home runs and 54 doubles as he teamed up with fellow superstars Ken Griffey Jr. and Edgar Martinez to dominate their American League counterparts. After the 1999 season, Griffey priced himself out of the Mariners’ range, and was traded to his hometown Cincinnati Reds. This freed up Alex to be the lone superstar on the Mariners, but it also meant that he too would soon become a valuable commodity on the market. Rodriguez continued to feast on American League pitching, and as his numbers continued to climb, so did his price.

Rodriguez was granted free agency after the 2000 season. Nobody anywhere near Rodriguez’s caliber had ever hit the free market, in terms of skill (Rodriguez hit .309/.374/.561 with Seattle) or age (24). Rodriguez was rewarded with the richest contract in baseball history, a 10-year, $252 million deal to stay in the American League West division with the Texas Rangers. Although Rodriguez had spent a season outside of Griffey’s shadow in Seattle, Rodriguez suggested that this contract brought on certain types of pressures. “When I arrived in Texas, I felt an enormous amount of pressure. I felt like I had all the weight of the world on top of me and I needed to perform, and perform at a high level every day,” Rodriguez confided to ESPN baseball legend Peter Gammons (Associated Press).

Rodriguez counteracted this weight on his shoulders by taking steroids during his three-year stay in Texas, according to his interview with Gammons. “I did take a banned substance. And for that, I am very sorry and deeply regretful. (Associated Press)” It’s hard to argue with Rodriguez stating he only took them for those three years, as those three seasons are certainly among his five finest seasons of his career, which has spanned 17 seasons. Further muddying the issue, however, is that he’s continued his stellar play after becoming a Yankee. It’s hard to distinguish if Rodriguez’s talents on the baseball field today reflect a continuation of how good he was before taking steroids, if he’d been taking them all along, or why altogether he took them when he was arguably the best baseball player of the world to begin with. He also transitioned to third base from shortstop upon joining the Yankees, thus making it more difficult to see if it would have affected him defensively, also.

So what does Baseball Prospectus have to say on the matter? Let’s first consider the 2003 version, which chronicles Rodriguez as he came off a 2002 season in which he hit .300/.392/.623 while leading the American League with 57 home runs and 142 runs batted in:

“The Rodriguez/Tejada debate shows that, much as they like to claim that their passion is baseball, most sportswriters are really aspiring professional semanticists. Given an opportunity to wax poetic about one of the greatest seasons ever by a shortstop, evoking great names from baseball’s past like Wagner, Vaughan, Banks, and Ripken, they instead subjected us to long-winded philosophical treatises on the meaning of “value”, or how context affects value. The most frustrating thing is that, for all those writers who are tempted to engage in Clintonian meaning-twisting to justify a vote for their pet player, the BBWAA spells it out: the instructions sent to all MVP voters state that “value” is equivalent to “strength of [a player’s] offense and defense.” Would anyone seriously claim that Tejada had stronger offense or defense than ARod? (Huckabay 217)”

This seems to be about as glowing of a review as one can have of a player. Not only do the editors of Baseball Prospectus think that Rodriguez was definitely the best choice for MVP in 2002, but they want to insert him in the conversation among the all-time greats to play the position.
So what does the 2010 version have to say about Rodriguez? Consider:

“A-Rod got the barest consideration in the AL MVP voting, but think of the impact he had. While Rodriguez was off recovering from hip surgery, the Yankees had 28 games of Cody Ransom, Ramiro Pena, and (unbelievably) Angel Berroa. That motley crew combined to hit .202/.248/.283 and the Yankees went 13-15. Rodriguez came back on May 8th; although he came back slow, he hit .322/.421/.572 over his final 83 games, with the Yankees going 58-25 in those games and 81-41 overall in his starts, a 108-win pace. Talk about absence making the heart grow fonder, but A-Rod raked into November with a .365, six-homer postseason. He’s signed for another eight years and crazy amounts of dough, and it’s spectacularly unlikely he’ll justify every year of his contract, but for the moment, he remains one of the most valuable and essential players in the game. (Goldman 385)”

So what does this seem to suggest? It’s the opinion of this writer that Major League Baseball and the media around it are trying to avoid biting the hand that feeds it. Alex Rodriguez is among the biggest stars in the game, and draws a crowd wherever he travels with the Yankees. It seems as though nobody wants to write anything about him that is negative in terms of steroids. However, his personal life is less off limits, with stories coming out about a romantic involvement with Madonna and various other stories.

To summarize, Alex Rodriguez can still make a lot of money for a lot of people. This includes every aspect of the media, including newspapers, ad sales for televised Yankees games, magazines, and any other form of media. Matt Lawton was at a point in his career where he could no longer do that for the game (and one could pretty easily argue that he never would have, due to playing in the relative obscurity of Minneapolis during his prime years), and he was lambasted in headlines and all other forms of media. In my mind that seems to suggest that Major League Baseball isn’t truly worried about the integrity of the game, but rather the almighty dollar sign.

2010 Twins Projections - Outfielders + Hudson + Thome

2010-04-05T13:58:00.001-05:00

LF- Delmon Young (.284/.308/.425 in ‘09)
BJ: .297/.332/.437 (wOBA .333)
BW: .290/.325/.430 (500 AB)
Delmon Young has been difficult to predict since he came to the major leagues with a brief call-up in 2006. It's long been suggested that his key to taking the next step is developing some semblance of plate-discipline. Not only did he not do this in 2009, but he took a giant step back. Young's K rate, which by all accounts was not good to begin with, jumped by an astonishing five percent from 18.3% to 23.3%. For those mathematically challenged, essentially one of every four at bats resulted in Young striking out. So why the optimism from both 10Scoreless and Bill James? One must believe it's due to the offseason trade of Carlos Gomez, thus opening a full time CF slot for Denard Span, and also a full time slot in LF for Young. Young's 2010 picture became a bit more unclear with the signing of Jim Thome, who may vulture PA from Young if Young's play can keep Jason Kubel out of LF.

CF- Denard Span (.311/.392/.415 in ’09)
BJ: .300/.377/.403 (wOBA .345)
BW: .310/.405/.435 (15 HR)
Denard Span has come a long way from being drafted as Torii Hunter's heir apparent in the first round of the 2002 first-year player draft. At times it looked as though Span would amount to nothing more than a poor-man's Juan Pierre; in fact his AAA line of .285/.353/.387 very closely mirrors Pierre's major league production. However, something clicked with Span, and he's evolved into arguably the premier leadoff hitter in the American League. The 2009 version of Span cut his strikeouts by nearly 2% from 2008, but with it went a few of the walks and a little of the power. While Bill James has Span's power slipping a bit more, it is the opinion of this writer that Span will benefit greatly from the added production of Orlando Hudson in the 2-hole in the lineup.

RF- Michael Cuddyer (.276/.342/.520 in ‘09)
BJ: .273/.347/.478 (wOBA .354)
BW: .270/.350/.465 (40 2B)
Nobody benefitted more from Justin Morneau's injury last season than Michael Cuddyer. Filling in at 1B for the 2006 AL MVP, Cuddyer hit .325/.398/.675 from Sept. 13 (the day Cuddyer took over 1B), and virtually carried the team into the playoffs. It may be unreasonable to expect Cuddyer to hit 32 home runs again (previous career high of 24 in 2006), and it may yet be impossible to predict how RHH will fare in Target Field, but the fact remains that Cuddyer will be protected on both sides by Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel, both of which are legitimate .900 OPS hitters. If Cuddyer remains healthy, he should be a near lock to drive in 100 runs, and may score 100 as well.

DH- Jason Kubel (.300/.369/.539 in ’09)
BJ: .284/.354/.504 (wOBA .370)
BW: .295/.370/.530 (30 HR)
2009 marked a huge season for Kubel, who evolved from a solid lower middle of the order hitter into an elite one. Kubel finished 8th in the AL in SLG, 8th in the AL in RBI, 10th in OPS+, and in a sign of the increased respect for him, 8th in the AL in IBB. All of this was a culmination of the long road back for Kubel from knee surgery coming off his 2004 cup of coffee with the Twins. Kubel's .907 OPS basically mirrors his AAA production, and his walk rate has slowly crept up to a more than respectable 9.7%. All this seems to suggest is that Kubel's 2009 line was very real, and that the Twins should act quickly if they want to lock Kubel up, as they hold a $5.25 million option on him for 2011 before he's eligible for free agency.

2B- Orlando Hudson (.283/.357/.417 in ’09)
BJ: .280/.353/.409 (wOBA .337)
BW: .285/.355/.425 (40 2B)
Hudson fills an enormous hole for the Twins. The Twins' 2B as a whole last year hit .209/.302/.267 (54 OPS+); their 2-hole hitters last season hit a combined .262/.306/.394 (85 OPS+). If Hudson can merely replicate his 2009 numbers, which saw his worst strikeout percentage of his career (18%) and his worst ISO since 2003 (.134), he'll still likely provide a 50 point OPS+ increase at 2B for the Twins, and a 20 point increase in the 2-hole of the lineup. This is a huge hole to fix between Denard Span and Joe Mauer, and the Twins did well to wait out the market on Hudson, signing him for five million for one year after he allegedly wanted a multi-year deal and Chase Utley money. The Twins offense was very good in 2009 in spite of holes like the 2-hole and the infield spots outside of Morneau, and Hudson is part of a fantastic job by Bill Smith to fill those holes both efficiently (financially) and effectively.

DH/PH- Jim Thome (.249/.366/.481 in ’09)
BJ: .245/.374/.488 (wOBA .375)
BW: .250/.365/.470 (250 AB)
Signing Jim Thome to a $1.5 million deal might be the most unheralded move the Twins made this offseason, but it might prove most beneficial as well. Thome showed last season that he's still got something left in the tank, posting a better than .800 OPS for the 15th time in the last 16 seasons. Batting average has never really been Thome's strong suit, as he's only hit .300 once since 1996, so nobody is going to expect him to hit better than .250. However, as long as he still takes walks and hits for power, it's unlikely that anyone will even notice. Thome's worst walk rate as a full time player is an outstanding 15.1%, and while he's struck out in exactly 30% of his career at bats, he's still managed an oustanding .279 ISO as he approaches 10,000 career PA. What does all this mean for the Twins? For starters, an experienced hitter off the bench who brings the power that both the Twins haven't had off the bench in a while and also the kind of game-changing power that one would prefer from a pinch hitter. Additionally, Thome brings accountability to Delmon Young in the sense that if Young doesn't play well early in the season, the Twins can have Kubel play more LF and get Thome at bats as the DH. For 1.5 million dollars, this was a move the Twins had to make.

Take Your Pick v2.0 - Corey Koskie or Gary Gaetti

2010-02-08T18:39:00.000-06:00

Who would you rather have on your club?

Consider:

Gary Gaetti (as a Twin)
.256/.307/.437 (99 OPS+)
3 Gold Gloves
2 All Star Game Appearances
3 top-25 MVP finishes (top 10 in 1987)
1 World Series Title

Corey Koskie (as a Twin)
.280/.373/.463 (115 OPS+)
0 Gold Gloves (an award dominated by Eric Chavez during early 2000s decade)
0 All Star Game Appearances
1 top-25 MVP finish (25th in 2001)
0 World Series Titles

Personally, I take Koskie. He was a far better hitter, and his defense evolved a great deal durings his seven seasons in Minnesota. I came under a little bit of fire for selecting Koskie over Gaetti for my All-Metrodome team, so I wanted to see what everyone else thought?

2010 Twins Projections - Infielders

2010-02-03T23:59:00.000-06:00

Today at 10Scoreless we’re doing 2010 Stat Projections. The format used will be BJ for the Bill James projection for each player, and BW for my projection for each player, along with a single stat picked out for emphasis. For those wondering about wOBA, please consult (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-joy-of-woba) for further explanation.

Here are the starting infielders:

C- Joe Mauer (.365/.444/.587 in ‘09)
BJ: .334/.422/.531 (wOBA .414)
BW: .335/.430/.525 (24 HR)
Predicting a .955 OPS from a catcher is difficult, but so is predicting a more than 100 point OPS drop-off for Mauer. It seems unlikely that he’ll reach a 1.000+ OPS this season; Mike Piazza only did three times in his career and twice it was by fewer than 10 points. This prediction for Mauer is set right in the middle of his mid .800s OPS (his career mark was .856 prior to 2009) body of work and his gargantuan 2009 campaign. It’s a relatively safe prediction, and hopefully an accurate one.

1B- Justin Morneau (.272/.363/.516 in ’09)
BJ: .282/.363/.510 (wOBA .376)
BW: .280/.370/.500 (32 HR)
Morneau enters 2010 with a decent amount to prove; from Aug. 1 until he was shut down for the season on Sept. 12, Morneau compiled a feeble .174/.273/.322 (.596 OPS) line that dropped his season OPS nearly 100 points during that 33 game span. When coupled with the fact that Cuddyer’s production at 1B skyrocketed in Morneau’s absence (.325/.398/.675 (1.073 OPS)) and that the Twins were ceremoniously manhandled in the ALDS by an offensively superior Yankee team, it becomes all too apparent that the Twins need a healthy Morneau if they’re ever going to move past the playoff slump they seem to have been mired in since early last decade.

2B- Nick Punto (.228/.337/.284 in ‘09)
BJ: .244/.330/.308 (wOBA .295)
BW: .265/.335/.340 (15 SB/1:1 K/BB ratio)
It’s unclear if the Twins are a very superstitious bunch, but if there’s anything to Nick Punto’s career path that someone should like, the Twins need to feel positive about what he can do for them in 2010. Punto posted a 90 OPS+ or better in 2006 and 2008; he followed each of them up with sub 70 seasons. If he can rekindle his even season magic, even just enough to post his typical walk rate and a slugging percentage that exceeds his OBP, his chances of another 90 OPS+ season and being a valuable commodity to the Twins improve immeasurably. In an ideal world, Punto would be a super sub, playing twice a week at 2B/SS/3B combined. In a less ideal world, Punto would be the starting 3B on this club because his career UZR/150 is 19.9 at 3B (compared to 3.9 at 2B). However, unless the Twins pull Orlando Hudson or Felipe Lopez off the free agent market, it appears the Twins will roll with Punto at 2B because they like his athleticism and Harris at 3B because of his level of comfort there (regardless of whether or not they’re superior defensive players at the opposite positions).

3B- Brendan Harris (.261/.310/.362 in ’09)
BJ: .273/.332/.398 (wOBA .320)
BW: . 265/.315/.400 (8 HR)
To predict Harris’ line is a difficult task; he rips lefties (.297/.356/.428 career line) and if used properly is a championship caliber role player. But, by virtue of his placement as the starting 3B, it’s difficult to project any sort of line that is close to that mark. The saving grace to his numbers are that he’ll likely be usurped by Danny Valencia at some point in the season, and thus will be allowed to return to the platoon role that allowed him success in the first place.

SS- J.J. Hardy (.229/.302/.357 in ’09)
BJ: .254/.320/.422 (wOBA .325)
BW: .260/.330/.440
By adding J.J. Hardy, the Twins appear to have solidified the SS spot that has been an eyesore since the club dealt Jason Bartlett. Hardy may never again replicate his 2008 numbers (.283/.343/.478), but he doesn’t have to do so to be a valuable addition to the Twins. In fact, in spite of his wretched 2009 numbers (.659 OPS/.292 wOBA in 465 PA), he still managed to provide a 1.4 WAR mark for the Brewers, primarily riding his 6.7 UZR in the field to provide most of his value. If Hardy can even have his hitting numbers meet somewhere halfway between 2008 and 2009, he’s going to be a very solid pickup for the Twins and help anchor an infield that desperately entered the offseason needing an overhaul. As long as he doesn’t hit second (which he says he prefers), he should still prove to be an asset in the lower third of the order.

Take Your Pick

2010-01-30T00:39:00.000-06:00

While I'm slaving away at my 2010 individual predictions, I'm just curious who some Twins fans would take, so I'll start a series of "Take Your Pick"

Take Your Pick, v1.0:

Justin Morneau
-or-
Kent Hrbek

Hrbek's career line (.282/.367/.481)
Morneau's career line (.280/.350/.501)

As can be seen, they are separated by literally 3 OPS points, and if we subtract Hrbek's final season (in order to account for some decline that Morneau will have later in his career), they have identical .851 marks.

Hrbek does have two World Series championships (which I don't buy as a feather in his cap, but some might) and was widely known for stellar defense (remember the couch potato play?), even though he didn't win a Gold Glove in a time where it was monopolized by Don Mattingly.

Morneau, on the other hand, has an MVP award (and a runner up finish in 2008), three 30 home run seasons (none for Hrbek), and probably 5-7 more years with the potential to add hardware to his trophy case.

So who would you rather have over the course of their entire careers?

Coining The Phrase

2010-01-12T17:32:00.000-06:00

For a while I've been using the phrase "Twinstripes" in my Twins talk. For instance, the other day I said "Ryan Church would look good in Twinstripes." I was advised by a number of people I know to "coin the phrase" and copyright it, but since I have no idea how to do that, I'll simply create an entry here today saying "I HEREBY COIN THIS PHRASE: Twinstripes"

In fact, my declaration is oddly similar to this video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HuGIgf-ICHM

Okay folks, that's it for all. Hope to update more frequently in the near future.

3B Daniel Valencia: What's His ETA?

2009-11-18T14:45:00.000-06:00

The Twins selected 3B Daniel Valencia (Miami U) with pick 576 in the 19th round of the 2006 MLB Amateur Draft. Valencia played two seasons for the Hurricanes, after playing a season with University of North Carolina-Greensboro. After posting a .910 OPS with UNC-Greensboro in 2004, he posted back to back .825+ OPS seasons with the Hurricanes while playing 1B in 2005 before moving to 3B full-time in 2006.

After signing with the Twins, Valencia reported to the Twins rookie affiliate Elizabethton, and responded with a .311/.365/.505 line in his first taste of pro ball, splitting time at 1B and 3B. The Twins rewarded his fine wood-bat debut by promoting him to Beloit to start 2007, where he managed an equally impressive .302/.374/.500 line through 242 at bats that earned him an in-season promotion to Fort Myers.

This is where a key theme begins with Valencia. Valencia closed out his first taste of high-A ball with a .291/.332/.422 line, with a 48/16 K to BB ratio. With this good, but not great line in his first trip through high-A, the Twins sent him back to Fort Myers to begin the 2008 season. Valencia responded with his finest effort to date, posting a spectacular .336/.402/.518 line in 220 at bats, with an improved 43/27 K to BB ratio. This prompted a move to New Britain for Valencia.

Again, Valencia posted a good line of .289/.334/.485 in his first AA go-round to close out 2008. Again, Valencia struggled to control the strike zone, with a K to BB ratio of 70/18. And again, Valencia was asked to repeat a level to begin the 2009 minor league season. Valencia's second trip through New Britain didn't provide more power, but a much better K to BB rate (40/31, which helped provide a vastly improved .089 isolated OBP mark) with a line of .284/.373/.482.

Now, onto Valencia's 2009 AAA experience. Similar to how he performed in his first trips through high-A and AA, Valencia had trouble controlling the strike zone with a .286/.305/.454 line and 37/8 K t BB ratio. Valencia himself admitted on last night's "Seth Speaks Weekly Podcast" that he didn't feel he controlled the zone as well as he usually does, and that he sometimes got caught up in swinging too early in at-bats, leaving him with fewer hitter's counts and fewer walks.

With his minor league pattern in mind, it's possible, if not probable that he'll be ready for major league duty sometime near mid-season, which would coincide with keeping him under team control for longer, and with the potential of the Twins re-signing Joe Crede, who hasn't been able to stay healthy for a full season since 2006. Assuming Valencia can develop a better control of the strike zone, and play at least adequate 3B defense, the Twins need not look to the free agent market for a target like Chone Figgins, Adrian Beltre, or Pedro Feliz, who will all likely want multiple years and more money than the Twins would be comfortable handing over.

Verdict:
Daniel Valencia, 3B
ETA: July 2010

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What We Expect to See - The Twins PROJECTED 2009 Offseason

2009-11-17T12:54:00.000-06:00

Today's entry is the second in a two part offseason series regarding the Twins' upcoming moves.

With J.J. Hardy coming over in a trade for Carlos Gomez a little over a week ago, the Twins offseason is officially underway. This is a good start towards what we believe will be an interesting offseason, and we're ready to predict it now.

Predictions:

Trade for J.J. Hardy - This isn't exactly a prediction, though. This move was called for in the most recent entry at 10 Scoreless, and it appears to be a good one. Gone is a free-range center fielder with very raw offensive skills, in comes a shortstop with great defensive skills and is coming off a rough season at the plate but has an all-star caliber hitting past.

Re-Sign Joe Crede - The price will be right with Crede, and much like last season the Twins will wait until very late in order to get the best value. Crede's value, which is almost solely tied to his defense, is probably no higher than 2 million plus incentives on the free market, and maybe not even that high. Other options make less sense than Crede, such as Pedro Feliz (essentially same player as Crede but more expensive), Adrian Beltre (Twins not necessarily needing long term fix, cost), and Chone Figgins (cost). Prediction: 1 year/2 million dollars

Re-Sign Carl Pavano - Pavano is a pitcher who does exactly what the Twins preach, pound the strike zone and let the opponent put the ball in play. If Pavano can repeat his marks as a Twin (7.2 K/9, 3.69 K/BB), it's not unreasonable to expect 13-15 wins and an ERA in the 4.25-4.50 range, which is a good fit for a back-end starter in a rotation marred by injuries in 2009. The Twins are better suited with Jeff Manship, Brian Duensing, and Anthony Swarzak (among others) as fifth starter or injury replacement options, rather than regular mid-rotation candidates. Prediction: 2 years/12 million dollars (6-6)

Extend Joe Mauer - This is the move that basically will determine if Bill Smith will get a passing grade for the offseason. It seems likely to get done; the Twins have the money, the new opening ballpark, and the need to lock down their most marketable face. It seems unlikely that Mauer would want to leave, but he doesn't need to pull punches; if this team doesn't improve around him, he has perfect reason to move on. Bill Smith gets it done, though. Prediction: 6 years/120 million dollars.

Predicted Opening Day Lineup:
1. Span CF
2. Hardy SS
3. Mauer C
4. Morneau 1B
5. Cuddyer RF
6. Kubel DH
7. Young LF
8. Crede 3B
9. Punto 2B

C - Jose Morales
IF - Alexi Casilla
IF - Brendan Harris
OF - Jason Pridie

SP - Scott Baker
SP - Kevin Slowey
SP - Nick Blackburn
SP - Carl Pavano
SP - Brian Duensing/Anthony Swarzak/Francisco Liriano/Boof Bonser/Jeff Manship

MU - Francisco Liriano/Boof Bonser
MR - Jon Rauch, Pat Neshek, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier
SU - Jose Mijares
CL - Joe Nathan

Analysis - This prediction has the Twins sticking with Punto at 2B, and that isn't hard to project. Ron Gardenhire's affinity for him is well-documented. As a result, the offense is only moderately improved (Hardy >>> Gomez), and the defense is only improved nominally.

Unless the Twins take a more drastic approach than the one predicted here, the team can reasonably be expected to win 86-88 games, but probably not the division. It is the true hope that the Twins haven't made their big bang move with Hardy (Mauer extension notwithstanding), but there isn't a ton in the Twins recent history to suggest otherwise, and for now the prediction will be conservative.

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What We'd Like to See - The Twins 2009 Offseason

2009-10-25T01:19:00.001-05:00

After a long hiatus, we're back and running. I'm hoping to update this a lot more frequently than I had been in the past. Wow, it's really been 5 months since an update? *yawn*

On to today's entry -

What we'd like to see from the Twins - 2009 Offseason:

The plan is to pair today's entry with the next entry entitled "What We Expect to See - The Twins PROJECTED 2009 Offseason." If the readers have any suggestions or comments, feel free to chime in.

First off, we bid happy trails to:
C Mike Redmond - Do not offer extension.
SS Orlando Cabrera - Do not offer extension.
MR Ron Mahay - Do not offer extension.

Redmond says he's not ready to retire, but it's time for the "Jose Morales catching day games after night games" tour to begin. Thanks for everything Red, hope to see you in our minor league coaching ranks soon.

As for Cabrera, we'll always be grateful for that home run against the Tigers in game 163, but that fact is that Cabrera wasn't a good player as a Twin, and is clearly in decline phase. If the club chooses to re-sign him, they need to definitely upgrade at 2B and 3B or it will be a long season.

Mahay was also pretty decent in his stint with the Twins (1.11 WHIP, 8.0 K/9), and it wouldn't be the end of the world if the club brought him back cheaply, but there are too many arms in the mix for the pen that the club ought not opt to bring him back.

Re-sign:
3B Joe Crede (1 year, 1 million + incentives based on PA)
SP Carl Pavano (1 year, 5 million w/ 2011 team option, vesting at 30 starts)

Those two could be points of contention from a number of Twins fans. Crede was a decent enough player when he could get on the field, which unfortunately wasn't enough. He isn't enough of an asset with the bat, but given the fact that he plays absolutely fantastic defense (rated 11.8 on FanGraphs lists him 5th in the AL behind the likes of Chone Figgins, Evan Longoria, and Adrian Beltre who are all defensive stalwarts). Given the notion that Daniel Valencia may be still a half-season or more away (.286/.305/.454 suggests the pop is there, but command of the strike zone is not, 37/8 K-BB ratio only affirms that), it really doesn't hurt to bring Crede back on an incentive-laden deal with Buscher, Harris, and the gang left as fall backs should Crede's balky back betray him again, we are only out a million dollars.

Pavano, on the other hand, was a steadying hand on a rotation that badly needed it down the stretch. His numbers as a Twin don't seem all that special at first glance (5-4 4.64 in 12 starts), but he commanded the strike zone nicely (59/16 K-BB ratio, 7.2 K/9 ratio) and pounded the strike zone as if he'd come up in the Twins system. Make no mistake, Pavano is in no way the ace this team very badly needs, but he's a solid lower-rotation arm that the Twins should hold onto given the relative youth that is ready to invade the rotation. Injuries will happen, and guys like Jeff Manship, Brian Duensing, and others should be ready to pounce when they get their chance, but in re-signing Pavano, we won't have to lean heavily on these youngsters all season.

Free Agent Moves:
SP Rich Harden - 1 year, 8 million with incentives based on IP and 2nd year option at 10 million vesting with 30 starts.
2B Placido Polanco - 1 year, 3 million dollars.

The Twins are in a mode where they only really need an ace starting pitcher. With a number of 2-3 type starters already in tow (Baker-Blackburn-Slowey), it makes no sense for the club to add a mid-rotation starter like a Jason Marquis, and guys like John Lackey will be too spendy for the Twins budget. Harden gets the nod over guys like Erik Bedard and Ben Sheets because he not only pitched last season, but at a pretty high level. In fact, he just missed type-A free agent classification, and the Cubs are inexplicably choosing to not offer him arbitration.

Polanco gets the pick for the 2010 2B job because he typifies what the Twins like in a player. He handles the bat well and controls the strike zone (46/36 K-BB in 2009), and plays solid defense (12.1 on FanGraphs leads the AL among full-time 2B, and trails only Ben Zobrist among all 2B). He doesn't provide much in the way of power (.414 career SLG), but would be well suited to hit in the 9th spot in the order as a career .303/.348/.414 hitter.

Trade:
SP Anthony Swarzak, MR Matt Guerrier, and PTBNL to Milwaukee for SS J.J. Hardy.

I honestly am not sure what type of 3rd piece would be required, but I think this is a logical deal. Guerrier is a solid reliever entering his final year of arbitration, thus making him a bit too spendy for the Twins to keep with his skill set. Swarzak, in spite of his less-than-successful debut, is still a decently well regarded SP prospect that the Brewers would definitely have use for. Among the 3rd pieces I was considering, I was thinking of possibly David Winfree, or some other near major league-ready bat that has a better chance of helping another club than here.

Other business to tend to:
C Joe Mauer - Extend at a rate of 18-20 million per, with 120 million over 6 seasons as a general baseline.
CF Carlos Gomez - Begin the season in Rochester.

There's not much to say about Mauer; he needs to be here long term and the club needs to pay him. The biggest problem is that they're forced to pay him after easily his best season. It's impossible to expect him to replicate any of his ridiculous numbers again in any subsequent season, but that's a chance the club has to be willing to take. As the franchise cornerstone, the Twins need Mauer behind the plate for another 5 seasons, and then somewhere else in the field for another 5+.

The Gomez situation is also pretty simple: he needs to go to Rochester and hone his skills. He won't play in Minneapolis every day, but he's at a point in his career where he has to start showing some growth. Look, we all know he came up right away because the Twins had to save face on the Santana deal. We still have to save face, and the best way to do so is to do what's right for Gomez's future. He needs to go to AAA, and prove that he deserves to be here. And by that, I mean he needs to pull a .270/.340/.425 line and get back that terror he had on the bases when he first came up. He'll always have defensive value, but the Twins didn't trade for a 4th outfielder, and it's unlikely he'll grow into much more without playing everyday away from the major leagues.

Roster at a glance (after all moves):
1. Span CF
2. Mauer C
3. Morneau 1B
4. Kubel DH
5. Cuddyer RF
6. Young LF
7. Crede 3B
8. Hardy SS
9. Polanco 2B

Bench:
C - Morales
IF - Harris
IF - Punto
OF - Huber

Pitching Staff:
SP - Harden
SP - Baker
SP - Slowey
SP - Blackburn
SP - Pavano
MU - Bonser
MRs - Rauch, Crain, Liriano, Neshek
SU - Mijares
CL - Nathan

A very nice pitching staff. Harden at the top provides some variety as a strikeout pitcher with great stuff, and the rest of the rotation falls in line as guys who pound the strike zone, walk no one, and keep the defense involved. Liriano looks like he projects better in the bullpen, and the team has to find room for Neshek and Bonser coming off major injuries. If both are ready for this season, and pitch according to their abilities, this could be a lights out Twins staff.

Players We'll May See at One Time or Another in 2010:
CF Gomez
3B Buscher
2B Casilla
IF Tolbert
OF Winfree
SP Duensing
SP Manship
MR Slama
P Gabino
MR Morillo
MR Delaney

In my opinion, this club wins 95 games and brings home the AL Central Crown, edging out a solid White Sox team who leads the AL in rotation ERA and brings back Jim Thome for a solid farewell tour.

Studs and Duds: The Offense of the 2009 Minnesota Twins Part I - Where We Are Today.

2009-05-28T14:40:00.001-05:00

As the season progresses, it's becoming very clear that the Twins offense is powered by a number of "haves" and "have nots." Coming into play today, the Twins are hitting a collective .278/.354/.438 (113 OPS+). If the season ended today, that .792 OPS would mark the Twins highest OPS in franchise history. Powering this offensive resurgence have been six players with an OPS over .800 (Mauer, Morneau, Span, Cuddyer, Kubel, and Morales, who had an .839 OPS over his short time (60 PA) with the Twins). Unfortunately, for a team that is seeing this unprecedented offensive firepower, they also have eight regular or semi-regulars (50 PA or more) who have sub .700 OPS numbers. In fact, the only player that isn't either above .800 or below .700 is Joe Crede, and with his home run today he may have bumped his .792 over the .800 mark.

The solid offensive production is coming from the usual suspects. Mauer's been absolutely white-hot upon his return from the disabled list, blasting 11 home runs in May while hitting an unreal .425/.514/.862 with an 13/18 K/BB ratio. The only thing keeping Mauer from ruling the leaderboards is that he's currently about 35 plate appearances short of the "3.1 PA/team games played" rule in order to qualify for rate statistics. Morneau, on the other hand, is hitting .343/.423/.623, which places him first in SLG, OPS+, second in raw OPS, fifth in OBP, and eighth in batting average. He has also maintained a very good K/BB ratio, striking out 30 times while walking 25. Also controlling the strike zone very well is leadoff hitter and roving outfielder extraordinaire Denard Span, who has struck out 26 times but also walked 24 while posting a .316/.409/.418 line in the leadoff spot, giving the team their first legit leadoff hitter since Chuck Knoblauch.

In spite of the offensive contributions from Mauer, Morneau, Span, Kubel, Cuddyer, Crede, and company, they have been weighed down by absolutely putrid production from the other spots in the lineup, primarily 2B and SS. The batting line for 2B on the season for the Twins has been .175/.232/.242, and the SS line isn't a lot better at .223/.306/.268. Brendan Harris, Nick Punto, Matt Tolbert, and Alexi Casilla aren't the only culprits, though. There has been literally no offensive production from Delmon Young or Carlos Gomez, either. Young's OPS is .585, and Gomez's is slightly better at .619. Gone is the four outfielders for three spots dilemma, and it's now turned into a two outfielders for three spots issue. The DH spot is no longer assured to be Kubel or another OF-type, but sometimes has been Brian Buscher or another infielder while Kubel has taken the OF, which he has done seven times prior to today.

So what can the team do to remedy this issue? Send your suggestions, and look for a new article with some of my own.

Coming soon: Studs and Duds: The Offense of the 2009 Minnesota Twins Part II - How Do We Fix It?

Meeting Ben Zobrist

2009-05-19T22:35:00.001-05:00

The Twins hosted the defending American League Champion Tampa Bay Rays for a three-game series Apr. 27-29, and with them brought some of the most exciting young players in the game. Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza, and a number of others highlight a roster poised to return to the playoffs and do damage in what is arguably the toughest division in the game, the American League East.

However, it was a less-heralded player who made this series memorable for me. Prior to game two, I had the opportunity to meet and greet utility man Ben Zobrist. My connection to Zobrist comes through David Langley, a sophomore at Northwestern who went to the same Eureka, Ill. high school that Zobrist went to. On a team full of young up-and-coming superstars, Zobrist is notable for his versatility and most importantly, his faith in Jesus Christ as his personal Savior.

Zobrist, or ‘Benzo’ as he is affectionately called by his Eureka brethren, has been a professional baseball player since he was selected in the sixth round of the 2004 amateur draft by the Houston Astros. Zobrist progressed through the Astros’ system, before a mid-2006 trade sent Aubrey Huff to Houston and sent Zobrist to Tampa. There Zobrist made his major league debut Aug. 1, 2006, going hitless in four at bats against Detroit. Zobrist made the opening day roster for the Devil Rays in 2007, but only stayed with the club until mid-May, and was again called up for a brief stretch in July and August. 2008 was a big season for Ben, and although he didn’t start the season on the big league roster, saw his first action with the Rays May. 15 and stayed with the club the rest of the year, appearing in 62 games and posting a solid batting line of .253/.339/.505 while helping the club out in six different positions on the field.

The opportunity to meet Zobrist came when Langley and I drove down to the Metrodome and got press passes to view batting practice. That was quite an experience, all made possible by the Rays Director of Communications Chris Costello, who got hold of Zobrist on our behalf and set up the press passes for us and had us ushered down to the field through the same entrance the Twins take down to the field. Along the way we passed Lavelle E. Neal III., who writes Twins and MLB stories for the Star Tribune, in the tunnel. Once we got on the field, we passed Denard Span and Delmon Young, who had just finished their round of batting practice and were making their way to the clubhouse as the Rays started batting practice.

As the Rays took the diamond for warm-ups, David and I pointed out Rays players we recognized. Within 10 feet were Akinori Iwamura and Carlos Pena, who was playing catch with Longoria. We were both amused when Longoria said he wanted to ‘pitch to Cuddyer’, which resulted in Pena crouching like a catcher and Longoria throwing a number of breaking balls, something Cuddyer is notorious for chasing. As the rounds went on, we kept tabs on Zobrist. He made his way towards the dugout to pick up his batting gloves and bat, and strode over to us to chat for a bit. For me, it was mostly small talk. I’d never met Zobrist, but it was still incredible to meet a Major Leaguer in such a candid manner.

Since Ben’s batting practice round was starting soon, he told us he had to hit but that he’d stay to chat a while afterwards. After his round, he had us come into the dugout and sit with him on the bench while we chatted for about ten minutes. He talked about not starting that game, but expecting to start the next one because Joe Maddon wanted to get Upton a bit of a break. Zobrist offered us seeds, gum, and Gatorade from the players’ personal stash, which was also pretty impressive. After a few minutes, Ben had to make his way to the pregame meal and grab something to eat before the game started, which was about 45 minutes away yet.

The experience wasn’t over, yet. David and I made our way out to the Home Run Porch and watched the game develop into a 3-2 Twins lead heading into the ninth. Ron Gardenhire called on Joe Nathan to close it out, and Zobrist got his shot, pinch hitting for Gabe Gross. Nathan unleashed a 92 mile-per-hour fastball, and Ben squared it up, hitting it out of the park for his fourth home run of the season and tying the game at 3. Langley jumped up and shouted “YES!” as the ball cleared the fence, much to the dismay of the handful of Twins fans near us in the center field stands. Things didn’t end so poorly for the hometown nine; however, as the Twins loaded the bases before scoring the winning run on a Justin Morneau fielder’s choice that scored Jose Morales. It was the perfect ending to a memorable experience.

My All-Metrodome Team

2009-05-07T16:15:00.001-05:00

Much is being made of the all Metrodome team that is being compiled on Twinsbaseball.com as the final season at 34 Kirby Puckett Place winds down. With that in mind, here is my personal "All-Metrodome" squad, complete with a bench, honorable mentions, and an entire pitching staff.

Feel free to comment with your feelings about my exclusions, or perhaps a list of your own!

Kubel Rube's all Metrodome Team, under the direction of #10, Tom Kelly:
C - Joe Mauer (honorable mentions to A.J. Pierzynski and Brian Harper)
Easy pick here, Mauer enters play today with a career line of .318/.400/.459 which totally blows away anyone else in Twinstripes. Steinbach was only a local boy who wasn't all that impressive (.256/.321/.399) in his time with the Twins, and Pierzynski, although closer than one might expect (.301/.341/.447) still doesn't quite measure up with Mauer.

1B - Kent Hrbek (honorable mentions to Justin Morneau and Doug Mientkiewicz)
This pick was interesting because Morneau and Hrbek have virtually idential numbers, separated by one single point in OPS (.849 for Morneau/.848 for Hrbek), which leads to a victory for Hrbek due to longevity, defense, and those two shiny things won a few seasons apart about 20 years ago.

2B - Chuck Knoblauch (honorable mention to ....... Todd Walker?)
Absolute no brainer here. Say what may be said about Knoblauch's departure, but he was an elite leadoff hitter while in Minneapolis. His .304/.391/.416 line as a Twin tells the tale of an ideal leadoff hitter who saw many pitches and help set the table for Kirby Puckett and co. in his seven years with the Twins. Nobody else really comes close, with Todd Walker's line of .285/.341/.413 providing the only 'competition' for Knobby here.

3B - Corey Koskie (honorable mention to Gary Gaetti)
This pick may draw the ire of Twins fans older than myself (I was a year old during the 1987 World Championship run), but I'd take Koskie over Gaetti without any question. Gaetti may have hit a bunch of home runs, but provided little else in the way of hitting or plate discipline. Gaetti's line with the Twins comes out to .256/.307/.437 (99 OPS+), while Koskie's comes out to .280/.373/.463 (115 OPS+). Not even the four consecutive gold gloves can save the Rat here, as Koskie's defense evolved from merely passable to Gold Glove caliber over the early years of his Twins stay.

SS - Cristian Guzman (also: Greg Gagne and Jason Bartlett)
When the "All-Metrodome" team 'boasts' a starting shortstop with an OPS of .685, it isn't hard to see that shortstop has long been an offensive black hole for the Minnesota Twins. Gagne's OPS was even worse (.677), and Bartlett was only marginally better OPS wise (.703) while in only about 1/3 of the at-bats Guzman had. Since there isn't really an honorable mention for the starting SS, the other two candidates don't receive that distinction, either. Guzman did provide some excitement, making an AL All Star squad in 2001 and three times poking 14 or more triples as a Twin (including 20 in 2000). Guzman was an odd player in that he never really progressed much for the Twins, in spite of a very solid 2001 season that saw him raise his OPS by almost 130 points from the previous season, only to lose 140 points the next season. Guzman seems to have found a home in the nation's capital, however, hitting .325/.357/.451 since his forgettable first season in DC (.219/.260/.314 in 2005).

LF - Shane Mack
This pick may also be surprising to some, but Mack was rock-solid as a Twin, posting a .309/.375/.479 (130 OPS+) line in his five seasons with the club. This would lead many to suggest that Mack might be the most underrated Twin to play at the Metrodome, perhaps largely because he was overshadowed by Kirby Puckett and Kent Hrbek. The end to Mack's career in the United States was odd, as after the strike he went and played in Japan for two seasons before returning stateside to play in 1997 with the Red Sox, where he resumed his status as a pretty solid major league regular for two seasons before falling off the radar after his age-34 season, wrapping up an under-the-radar career with a total line of .299/.364/.456 (120 OPS+).

CF - Torii Hunter
Having Hunter on the team in Center Field facilitated having Puckett in Right Field, and in doing so also boosted the defense of this "All-Metrodome" club. Hunter's line as a Twin isn't as impressive as many fans would expect, with a .271/.324/.469 (104 OPS+) line placing him slightly above league-average during those parts of 11 seasons with the club, but it was stellar defense and some timely hitting that etched Hunter's place in many Twins fans' hearts. Few will forget the lick that he put on Chicago's Jamie Burke to score a run in late July of the 2004 season on a Henry Blanco fly ball, helping seal a victory and propel the club to their third consecutive AL Central title.

RF - Kirby Puckett
This one was more of a no-brainer than Mauer and Knoblauch. Combined. Puckett's credentials include being the only Hall of Famer listed, 10 All Star game appearances, 6 each of Gold Gloves and Silver Sluggers, and a batting title. Puckett was the centerpiece of two World Series winning clubs, with an incredible .913 OPS in World Series games and .897 playoff OPS overall, thus proving he saved his best for the big games. Puckett popularized the over-the-fence robbing of opponents home runs at the Metrodome, something Torii Hunter revived and the Twins hope Carlos Gomez and Denard Span can continue going forward both at the Dome and at Target Field next season.

(honorable mentions in the OF were Tom Brunansky, Marty Cordova, Matt Lawton, and Jacque Jones)

DH - Paul Molitor (honorable mentions to David Ortiz, Chili Davis, and Jason Kubel)
DH has been another sore spot for the Twins, and seeing David Ortiz's name on the list (and perhaps more importantly, not seeing Matthew LeCroy's) will always remind us of the one that got away. However, the Molitor pick isn't on that is about longevity, or about overall filing the stat sheet with sheer awesomeness. With Molitor, it's about being first and foremost a pretty solid player in a Twins uniform (.312/.362/.432 is a heck of a line for a guy in his twilight 39-41 age years), but it's also about seeing him get his 3,000th hit in a Twins uniform (off Jose Rosado in Kansas City 9/16/96) and how he did it (only player in history to hit a triple for their 3,000th hit) and bringing back a hometown boy to his Twin Cities roots.

Bench:
C - A.J. Pierzynski
IF - Gary Gaetti
IF - Justin Morneau
OF - Matt Lawton
OF - Jacque Jones

Pierzynski gets the nod because of his offensive prowess over Steinbach and slight edge over Brian Harper (.306/.342/.431) as a Twin. Gaetti gets the nod as next best 3B over Pagliarulo, Leius, and Punto, even though he somehow got more MVP votes in 1987 (.257/.303/.485) than he did in 1988 (.301/.353/.551). Morneau would probably be the starter on this team if we revisited the list in 3-5 years, but for now he's basically interchageable on this list dependent on personal preference of whoever is making the list. Lawton was another grossly underrated Twin, twice posting OPS' exceeding .860 in his parts of seven seasons with the Twins, and Jones makes the club to complete the Soul Patrol squad (Hunter-Jones-Lawton) with his .279/.327/.455 line virtually matching Hunter's without the defensive wizardry (or ability to even touch lefties, for that matter) to give him the necessary boost.

SP - Johan Santana
SP - Brad Radke
SP - Kevin Tapani
SP - Scott Erickson
SP - Jack Morris

Santana is in no question; there isn't even any competition for him after posting a 93-44 record as a Twin with a 3.22 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 9.5 K/9 mark. Radke gets in for his 148 wins, 4.22 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and the fact that he somehow won 20 games in 1997 even though the team as a whole only won 68. After the top two, it got a bit more difficult. I went with Tapani because he isn't too dissimilar from Radke, posting a 4.06 ERA as a Twin with only 2.0 BB/9 and similar strikeout numbers. Scott Erickson gets in because he, similar to Tapani and Radke, posted a 4.22 ERA as a Twin, won 20 games in the 1991 season, and also holds one of two no-hitters thrown by the Twins at the Metrodome, his in 1994 against the Milwaukee Brewers. Finally, Jack Morris gets in on my ballot simply because of game 7 of the 1991 World Series (the namesake of this blog, after all), which isn't to say that he turned in a bad regular season in '91, his lone season with the Twins. He was 18-12 with a 3.43 ERA and 10 complete games, earning him 4th place in the Cy Young vote that season.

MRs - Pat Neshek, Jesse Crain, J.C. Romero, LaTroy Hawkins
SUs - Rick Aguilera, Eddie Guardado
CL - Joe Nathan

(honorable mentions for the bullpen include Carl Willis, Juan Berenguer, and Keith Atherton)

Neshek gets on in spite of his limited time with the Twins because he's been so dominant in that time, with a 2.91 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 10.6 K/9. Crain joins Neshek as current Twins relievers on the list primarily due to his 3.34 ERA, and his five of six seasons posting an ERA under 3.60. Romero is an interesting pick, primarily because once he stopped starting games, he immediately became a force out of the bullpen, posting a stellar 1.89 ERA to go with 9-2 record and 8.4 K/9 in 2002, his first season out of the pen. Additionally, Romero had 3 more season with ERAs under 3.55 and consistently struck out rougly eight per nine innings. Similar to Romero, the next MR slot goes to a converted starter who saw much more success in a relief role out of the bullpen, LaTroy Hawkins. Hawkins, who few may remember as the losing pitcher in David Wells' perfect game in 1998, compiled a 26-44 mark with a 6.16 ERA as a starter for the Twins from 1995-1999 before becoming a full-time reliever in 2000. 2000 saw a solid relief season for Hawkins, posting a 3.39 ERA and boosting his K/9 while cutting his HR/9. 2001 was a step back for Hawkins, who had his closer role taken away and was made a full-time setup man to Eddie Guardado, where he sparkled by posting a 15-3 record, 2.00 ERA, 7.9 K/9, and a 1.03 WHIP before departing Minnesota via free agency for the boo-birds of the North Side of Chicago.

It was hard to select one closer, so the three spots that are filled for the setup and closer roles are filled by three of the last four closers for the club. Aguilera was the Bob Vila/Al Borland look-alike who closed for the Twins for two separate stints from 1990-1995 and 1997-early 1999. While with the Twins, Aguilera saved 254 games, a club record that current closer Joe Nathan trails by 50. Guardado was one of the pitchers who succeeded Aguilera, and in doing so stabilized a position that was a bit rocky when Hawkins held the post. "Everyday" Eddie was a long-time Twin, coming up as a starter in 1993 before converting full-time to the bullpen in 1996. Guardado became a solid reliever in 2000, and from then until departing after 2003 posted an 18-13 record with 107 saves, a 3.31 ERA, and 8.6 K/9. Finally, the last player on the "All-Metrodome" team is Joe Nathan. Another converted starter, Nathan has come into his own to be a dominant closer with a 1.83 ERA, 11.0 K/9, and a 0.94 WHIP. He may not hold the team saves record, but it appears he's well on his way.

Thoughts?

Hey everyone!

2009-04-08T01:53:00.000-05:00

Hey all.....looking to get this off the ground pretty soon. Hope to keep you up-to-date primarily with Twins news, but may dabble in other sports news (typically MN related), but we'll see.

But now, it's late.

Good night!!!

The Kubel Rube